Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning Swing State Georgia: Polls

Former President Donald Trump will visit the key battleground state of Georgia on Monday, where he holds a slight lead over his rival Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Republican Party candidate will assess the damage left behind by Hurricane Helene, with over half a million customers left without power in the state after the storm passed through.
Trump’s visit comes after polls of key swing states showed him as the favorite in five out of seven of them, including a narrow lead in Georgia—0.6 percent above Harris.
“Based on all the polling we’re seeing, as well as chatter from the field, Georgia looks like a total jump ball at the moment,” Dr. Kerwin Swint, Professor of Political Science at Kennesaw State University told Newsweek via email Monday.
“Trump seems to have a slight lead in the polls, but within the margin of error. What may give Trump the edge in GA is Gov. Kemp’s voter turnout operation. It will be very interesting to see how Harris does with black males in Georgia and elsewhere.”
With 36 days until the election, Trump is in Valdosta, Georgia, where he will be briefed on Helene’s damage and is expected to assist in the distribution of relief supplies.
He is due to speak to the press at the Chez What Furniture Store in the city at 2 p.m. ET.
Harris, meanwhile, will receive briefings in Washington, D.C., on the disaster and the federal response. She has been under pressure to visit the areas affected by the storm.
Valdosta is in Lowndes County, which, like the rest of the state, was closely fought in the 2020 presidential election between Trump and President Joe Biden, with the latter winning the county by 12,670 votes, or a margin of .26 percent.
Biden’s narrow victory flipped the county from red to blue, with Trump having beaten Hilary Clinton with 51.05 percent of the vote in the 2016 race.
Georgia, like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, is a key battleground state that both Democrats and Republicans are fighting for.
The latest poll out Monday, from AtlasIntel, showed Trump leading Harris in Georgia (49.6 percent to 49), as well as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris led in the other two.
Those numbers have not been steady, however, with polls over the past two months— since Harris took over the Democratic ticket—often showing the pair neck-and-neck in the state.
FiveThirtyEight has shown Trump and Harris each take slight leads over the other since August 1, 2024. Many polls showed the pair within 1 percentage point of the other.
Harris had led Trump with Latino voters in Georgia, along with a large majority of Black voters. She visited Georgia for her first campaign event as the presidential nominee on July 30, before a bus tour in Savannah on August 28 and a rally on September 20.
Trump last visited Georgia under a week ago, with a rally in Savannah, while his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, was in the state on September 16. Vance also visited Valdosta on August 22.
The Category 4 hurricane left at least 102 people dead as it passed over six states.
After making landfall in Florida, Helene passed over Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.
Homes were swept away as floods arrived in multiple communities in these states, including in Valdosta, where photos showed power lines and trees down, with several buildings damaged.
The storm’s effects were still being assessed Monday morning, with President Biden promising to visit North Carolina later in the week and promising help for as long as it is needed.